By Chris Luckett
Despite there being only a dozen of so
films in major contention for the Oscars this year, while I was right about
many nominations, I also misjudged a number of them. Inside Llewyn Davis, Rush,
All is Lost, and Saving Mr. Banks all proved less loved by the Academy than they’ve
been by other award groups and guilds. Philomena,
Nebraska, The Wolf of Wall Street, and Dallas
Buyers Club also proved even stronger bets than I initially thought.
I did better with my predictions in the
major categories than in the more technical fields, but then, the more technical
awards are usually more unpredictable than the main eight, anyway.
My worst predictions were for Best
Documentary Feature, Best Original Song, and Best Short (Live-Action), with only
40% accuracy. My best predictions were for Best Adapted Screenplay, where I managed
to correctly predict all five nominated movies.
BEST
PICTURE
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
The Wolf of Wall Street
(Unpredicted:
Philomena)
Verdict: 8/9. I correctly predicted there would be nine nominees this year
and got eight of the nine nominations right, but I overestimated the Academy’s love
of the Coen brothers and Inside Llewyn
Davis’s chances. And while I knew that Judi Dench was a shoo-in for her
performance in Philomena, I didn’t
expect it was beloved enough to secure a spot in the Best Picture race.
BEST
ACTOR
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
(Unpredicted:
Christian Bale [American Hustle], Leonardo DiCaprio [The Wolf of Wall Street])
Verdict: 3/5. I expected a margin of error of 1, with all the last-minute
buzz for Bale’s performance in American
Hustle, but I didn’t expect DiCaprio would also get a nod this year, with
the race being as tight as it is. Between Hanks’ two well-received performances
last year, it seemed that unlikely for him to receive at least a nomination for
Captain Phillips, his more impressive
of the two. Despite rave reviews and what surely was one of the greatest
performances of the year, Robert Redford has been absent from much of the
awards-season promotions and All is Lost
has been present less often, as of late. I kept hoping Redford would still
receive a nomination, but this late in the changing game, it was just wishful
thinking.
BEST
ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
(Unpredicted:
Amy Adams [American Hustle])
Verdict: 4/5. I expected Thompson was a surer bet than Dench or Streep this
year, but the quickly cooling consensus about Saving Mr. Banks (possibly coupled with an anti-Walt Disney speech
Streep made recently) allowed American’s
Hustle’s Adams to sneak in, on a wave of late support.
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
(Unpredicted:
Jonah Hill [The Wolf of Wall Street])
Verdict: 4/5. Support for The Wolf of
Wall Street landed Jonah Hill his second Oscar nomination in three years,
simply leaving no room for Brühl’s impressive turn in Ron Howard’s Rush.
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
(Unpredicted:
Sally Hawkins [Blue Jasmine])
Verdict: 4/5. While The Butler’s
Forest Whittaker had already all but fallen out of the Best Actor race, I
expected Winfrey would still get a nomination in the weaker Best Supporting
Actress race. Sally Hawkins was a complete surprise.
BEST
DIRECTOR
Alfonso Cuarón
(Gravity)
Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
(Unpredicted:
Alexander Payne [Nebraska])
Verdict: 4/5. Assuming that Hanks would land a Best Actor nod as well, I
expected Greengrass to get recognition from the Academy for Captain Phillips’s direction. Nebraska seemed more likely to get
nominated for its screenplay, but the Academy has shown their affection for
Alexander Payne in the past, as well, so it does make sense.
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Her
Nebraska
(Unpredicted:
Dallas Buyers Club)
Verdict:
4/5. I thought Dallas
Buyers Club had a good shot of getting nominated, but just thought Inside Llewyn Davis’s script had a
better one.
BEST
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
12 Years a Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
Verdict: 5/5. Note to self: stay humble.
BEST
ANIMATED FEATURE
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Frozen
The Wind Rises
(Unpredicted:
Ernest & Clementine)
Verdict: 4/5. I expected the Academy’s love for Pixar would secure Monsters University at least a
nomination. Apparently not.
BEST
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Prisoners
(Unpredicted:
The Grandmaster, Nebraska)
Verdict: 3/5. I thought Nebraska
could displace Captain Phillips, but
I figured 12 Years a Slave was going
to get a spot, especially over a lower-profile movie like The Grandmaster.
BEST
COSTUME DESIGN
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
(Unpredicted:
The Grandmaster, The Invisible Woman)
Verdict: 3/5. Inside Llewyn Davis
and Saving Mr. Banks were soft
choices, to be honest. The Grandmaster
and The Invisible Woman simply seemed
too far off the Academy’s radar to me.
BEST
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
20 Feet from Stardom
The Act of Killing
(Unpredicted:
Cutie and the Boxer, Dirty Wars, The Square)
Verdict: 2/5. I thought the audience appeal of Blackfish, Stories We Tell,
and Tim’s Vermeer would fill the
slots after 20 Feet from Stardom and The Act of Killing, but voters steered
more obscurely this year.
BEST
FILM EDITING
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
(Unpredicted:
12 Years a Slave, Dallas Buyers Club)
Verdict: 3/5. Thinking Rush would
be nominated for a few Oscars, this seemed like a likely category in which for
the movie to be recognized. The modern feel of The Wolf of Wall Street, especially from an old-school filmmaker
like Martin Scorsese, seemed like it would be a sure thing. 12 Years a Slave’s sweep and love for Dallas Buyers Club proved stronger.
BEST
FOREIGN-LANGAUGE FILM
The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium)
The Great Beauty (Italy)
The Hunt (Denmark)
Omar (Palestine)
(Unpredicted:
The Missing Picture)
Verdict: 4/5. Having seen neither The
Notebook nor The Missing Picture
and knowing little about either yet, I’m not beating myself up about this one.
BEST
MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Bad Grandpa
Dallas Buyers Club
(Unpredicted:
The Lone Ranger)
Verdict:
2/3. I wasn’t completely sold on American Hustle getting a slot, but I
didn’t expect it to go to The Lone Ranger.
BEST
ORIGINAL SCORE
The Book Thief
Gravity
Saving Mr. Banks
(Unpredicted:
Her, Philomena)
Verdict: 3/5. With All is Lost’s
win for Best Score at Sunday’s Golden Globe Awards, I thought it would get a
nomination, at least. I forgot that the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and
the Academy for Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have no overlapping members
whatsoever. I’m surprised 12 Years a
Slave didn’t land a spot, though. I didn’t expect either Her or Philomena to get nominated here, but I’m not shocked, either.
BEST
ORIGINAL SONG
“Let it Go” (Frozen)
“Ordinary Love” (Mandela: Long Walk to
Freedom)
(Unpredicted:
“Alone Yet Not Alone” [Alone Yet Not Alone], “Happy” [Despicable Me 2], “The
Moon Song” [Her])
Verdict: 2/5. Not only did I figure there’d only be three nominated songs
this year, I expected the Academy wouldn’t pass on the opportunity to have the
youthful and popular Taylor Swift – who sang “Sweeter Than Fiction” –
performing on March 2’s televised broadcast. I was quite off in my read of this
category this year.
BEST
PRODUCTION DESIGN
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
The Great Gatsby
(Unpredicted:
Gravity, Her)
Verdict: 3/5. I’ve got no excuse for not thinking that Her would get nominated here. I totally should’ve seen that coming.
As for The Hobbit: The Desolation of
Smaug, I didn’t expect it would be forgotten in this category. Of all of Gravity’s nominations, this one feels
the most surprising.
BEST
SHORT (ANIMATED)
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
(Unpredicted:
Possessions, Room on the Broom)
Verdict: 3/5. This category, like the other Best Short categories, was a
toss-up, like usual.
BEST
SHORT (DOCUMENTARY)
CaveDigger
Facing Fear
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
(Unpredicted:
Karama Has No Walls, Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall)
Verdict: 3/5. See above verdict.
BEST
SHORT (LIVE-ACTION)
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)
Helium
(Unpredicted:
Avant Que De Tout Perdre [Just Before Losing Everything], Pitääkö Mun Kaikki
Hoitaa? [Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?], The Voorman Problem)
Verdict: 2/5. Oh, those tricky short film nominations.
BEST
SOUND EDITING
All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
(Unpredicted:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor)
Verdict: 3/5. The Hobbit: The
Desolation of Smaug’s nomination doesn’t surprise me. Lone Survivor’s nomination does.
BEST
SOUND MIXING
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
(Unpredicted:
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor)
Verdict: 3/5. See: Best Sound Editing.
BEST
VISUAL EFFECTS
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Star Trek Into Darkness
(Unpredicted:
The Lone Ranger)
Verdict: 4/5. Very surprised The Lone
Ranger got nominated here. I could’ve seen Pacific Rim being displaced, but not by The Lone Ranger.
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