By Chris Luckett
The 86th Academy Awards are just four weeks
away, but it’s often in the last month before the Oscars that the tide can turn
and upsets come about. (This time last year, Lincoln was expected to win Best Picture, not Argo. Two years before that, the same thing happened between The Social Network and The King’s Speech.) Much can change
between now and March 2. For now, though, here’s how 2014’s Oscar race is
shaping up.
Best
Picture
Photo: Warner Bros. |
Gravity’s director, Alfonso Cuarón,
is very likely winning Best Director – and the Academy showed just last year
they don’t mind splitting the Picture and Director trophies between two films –
so Gravity may find itself left
adrift here. 12 Years a Slave could
definitely take the top prize, but Hollywood’s love for American Hustle has been continually growing through January. As of
now, American Hustle’s the one to
beat.
Best
Director
Alfonso Cuarón has won almost every
directing award over the last year, even when Gravity itself has lost for corresponding Picture awards. Whether
or not Gravity wins the Oscar for
Best Picture, Cuarón is pretty much a lock for Best Director.
Best
Actor
Photo: Focus Features |
Best
Actress
Much like Christian Bale, Amy Adams could
very possibly see a last-minute surge in popularity through her involvement in American Hustle. Short of that movie
sweeping all the categories, Cate Blanchett is the one to bet on for her role
in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine.
Best
Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club. No one else is even in the running.
Best
Supporting Actress
Right now, it’s down to Jennifer Lawrence
for American Hustle and Lupita
Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave. One the
one hand, the Academy clearly loves Lawrence, having given her an Oscar just
last year. On the other hand, they did already give her an Oscar just last
year. Lawrence, like all others involved, could receive an American Hustle boost in the coming weeks, but otherwise the
Academy will likely feel it’s too soon for her to get another Oscar, awarding
it to Nyong’o for stunning debut performance.
Best
Original Screenplay
Frankly, any of the five nominees could win
and it wouldn’t be a surprise. The category’s a complete toss-up. When in
doubt, though, always go with the Woody Allen screenplay. Blue Jasmine stands a slightly better chance than the other four –
though that could easily change.
Best
Adapted Screenplay
The
Wolf of Wall Street was too divisive, Philomena was too treacly, and the
controversy about the accuracy of Captain
Phillips has all but sunk its chances. It’s a close call between Before Midnight and 12 Years a Slave, but assuming American
Hustle and Gravity take most of
the other categories (as it’s looking might happen), the Academy will probably
give Adapted Screenplay to 12 Years a
Slave as consolation.
Best Animated Feature
A two-horse race if there were one this year. One contender, Frozen, has been touted to be the greatest animated (non-Pixar) Disney movie since The Lion King. The other, The Wind Rises, is the final film of anime legend Hayao Miyazaki. It’ll be close, but Frozen’s momentum looks too strong to beat.
A two-horse race if there were one this year. One contender, Frozen, has been touted to be the greatest animated (non-Pixar) Disney movie since The Lion King. The other, The Wind Rises, is the final film of anime legend Hayao Miyazaki. It’ll be close, but Frozen’s momentum looks too strong to beat.
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